Three factors with admittedly awkward names seem to play a big role: preference falsification, diverse thresholds and interdependencies. When the three are taken together, the difficulty of anticipating social movements becomes less puzzling. Preference falsification exists when people conceal, or do not reveal, what they actually think and prefer. They might say they like the current situation when they despise it. They might silence themselves. Their friends and neighbors might have no idea what they actually think. To that extent, people live amidst what is called “pluralistic ignorance,” in which they do not know about the preferences of others.

Diverse thresholds mean that different people require different levels of social support before they will rebel or say what they actually think. Some people might require no support at all; they are rebels by nature. They might be courageous, committed, angry or foolhardy. Call them the “zeroes.” They might well turn out to be isolated; no one may join them, in which case they might look radical, self-destructive or even crazy.

Other people might require a little support. They will not speak out or take action unless someone else does, but if someone does, they are prepared to rebel as well. Call them the “ones.” Others might require more than a little; they are the “twos.” The twos will do nothing unless they see the zeroes and the ones rebelling. But if they do, they will rebel as well. The twos are followed by the threes, the fours, the tens, the hundreds and the thousands, all the way up to the infinites – defined as people who will not rebel or oppose the status quo or the regime, no matter what.

Interdependencies point to the fact that the behavior of the ones, the twos, the threes and so forth will depend crucially on who, if anyone, is seen to have done what. Suppose that the zeroes go first, then the ones, then the twos, then the threes and so on. Or perhaps vice-versa. Or maybe it is all random. Under imaginable assumptions, a rebellion will occur, but only given the right distribution of thresholds and the right kind of visibility. If the ones see the zeroes, they will rebel, and if the twos see the ones, they, too, will rebel, and if the threes see the twos, they will join them. If the conditions are just right, almost everyone will rebel.

But it is important to see that the conditions have to be just right. Suppose that there are no zeroes, or that no one sees any zeroes. If so, no rebellion will occur. If there are few ones, no rebellion will occur and the status quo or the regime is likely to be safe. If most people are tens or hundreds or thousands, the same is true, even if there are some ones, twos, three, fours and so forth.