The damage will differ from city to city, but we believe that the profound shifts underway in retail, manufacturing and professional services will impact all of the world’s seven main types of megacities: global giants (Tokyo, New York), Asian anchors (Singapore, Seoul), emerging gateways (Istanbul, São Paulo), factory China (Tianjin, Guangzhou), knowledge capitals (Boston, Stockholm), American middleweights (Phoenix, Miami) and international middleweights (Tel Aviv, Madrid).
And because 60 percent of global GDP is generated by just 600 cities, struggle in one city could trigger cascading failures. It’s conceivable that in 10 or 20 years, floundering megacities may cause the next global financial meltdown. If this forecast seems dire, it’s also predictable: Places, like industries, must adapt with technological change. For megacities, it’s time to start planning for a disrupted future.