Punishing rivals and rewarding friends
Within government, one of Abe’s toughest internal opponents has been the former defence minister and LDP secretary general, Ishiba Shigeru. Ishiba hails from a rival faction and previously ran against Abe in party leadership elections. So the decision not to appoint him to a more prominent cabinet position reinforces Abe’s desire to eliminate any potential challenges to his authority. Even when, as in Ishiba’s case, their ultimate goals for defence and constitutional reform largely align, despite public disagreement over how best to realise them.
Meanwhile, Abe has appointed the hawkish, Harvard-educated, Toshimitsu Motegi, to foreign minister, and retained some of his most loyal supporters in chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, and deputy prime minister and finance minister, Taro Aso. This highlights Abe’s consistent desire to surround himself with those least likely to rock the boat against his leadership.
Securing a legacy
Abe’s past, in particular the [highly nationalistic ideology] associated with his grandfather and former prime minister, Nobusuke Kishi, and controversial figures such as Iki Kita, has often been focused on more than his post-prime ministerial future. Yet all of these moves come in the context of Abe’s likely departure in 2021, with an eye on implementing constitutional reform before that happens. Abe has long sought to be remembered as the prime minister that transformed Japan into a “normal nation” in military and geopolitical terms.
Proof of that pudding would come if Abe could persuade his peers in the Diet, and the Japanese public, to revise the peace clause of the constitution. Abe wants recognition of the Japan Self-Defense Forces written into the constitution. Although land, air and sea forces are supposedly prohibited under Article 9, Japan currently boasts one of the best-equipped militaries on the planet, not to mention a coast guard that could confidently take on many navies.
Despite such sabre rattling – and in contrast to many of his current European and North American counterparts – Abe has skilfully avoided the tag of populist. Instead, he has massaged his domestic and international audiences to project an image of statesmanship, stability and pragmatism.
Nevertheless, with opinion polls suggesting that only just over 50% of the Japanese public are in favour of even debating constitutional reform, time may be running out for Abe.
His carefully considered cabinet reshuffle appears to reflect this stark political reality, as he seeks to manoeuvre around political opponents and coalition partners. In that sense this latest move represents Abe’s resolve to pursue constitutional reform, even if it has to be after he steps down in September 2021.
Abe has championed strong leadership. He has pioneered Abenomics, a three-pronged strategy for tackling Japan’s long-running economic stagnation, and womenomics, a proposal to encourage more Japanese women to enter the workforce. However, it now seems that Abe is playing a long-game, fostering the next generation to carry forward his vision of realising a normal Japan.