5 tactics for negotiating a fossil fuel phase-out
There are a multitude of ways to achieve this during negotiations.
Constructive ambiguity, which allows for agreement based on more than one interpretation, is one way. Finding a path is often more important than spelling out, or agreeing upon, a single reasoning.
The “common but differentiated responsibilities” inherent in climate commitments is an example. Subtle turns of phrase in an agreement – such as whether leading a global drive to cut emissions is seen as a developed-country responsibility or something simply within their greater capacity to do – can allow multiple parties to move toward the same goal by reading their own self-interest into the language used.
Common ground can also often be reached incrementally by building trust, confidence, comfort and eventually clarity over time.
For example, at the G20 meeting of major economies in September 2023 in India, the participants agreed to triple their renewable energy capacity. They stopped short of agreeing to “phase out” fossil fuel use, but their agreement set the stage for future progress by a powerful group that operates 93% of the globe’s coal power plants and is responsible for 80% of global emissions.
Linguistic gymnastics may be deployed at COP28 to translate the G20 agreement into a global agreement aimed toward “phasing out” fossil fuels.
Using phrases such as phasing out “unabated fossil fuels” or “emissions” has been floated as compromises. Each, however, allows the caveat that carbon capture technology could be used to cancel out emissions, meaning fossil fuel use could continue. Whether that technology can effectively be applied on a large scale is hotly debated.
Climate negotiations can also be used to pressure governments to act. There is huge international pressure on the president of COP28, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, who is also the CEO of the United Arab Emirates’ state-owned oil company, to exercise his influence with other oil producers and businesses to edge closer to agreement on “phasing out” emissions.
Finally, should the words “phase out” still elude negotiators, it will be important to ensure a trajectory of progress. When words in an agreement won’t (yet) work, officials can send those difficult issues to other forums to work out the details.
For example, the question of phasing out fossil fuels can be incorporated into the ongoing global stocktake discussion and the mitigation work program, where participants are exploring new pathways to bridge the gaps in progress.
These tactics illustrate a key dynamic balance between comfort and pressure when striving to find agreement within the U.N. climate talks, where decisions are made by consensus. A common thread is maintaining flexibility – whether operational or interpretative – so all nations can move forward.
Toward a new paradigm for collective action
True collective action on climate change requires those who govern, represent or influence to respond to universal values, including ensuring a healthy planet for all nations and future generations.
It requires separating climate risks and responses from economic, political and other immediate concerns, and appreciating that critical systems that keep the planet healthy are close to breaking points.
Getting all stakeholders to value the future may take incremental improvement, but there is progress. For example, soft diplomatic channels between the U.S. and China – currently the world’s top two emitters – have been able to separate climate change from the far more contentious issues of trade, economic rivalry and shifting geopolitics.
To build collective action, the Paris Declaration also sought to capitalize on the potential of well-informed nonstate actors, such as issue advocates, business leaders and city mayors, to work across borders, emphasize ethics as they influence leadership, and fill gaps that governments and institutions remain ill-equipped to resolve.
The UAE has promised to create the most inclusive U.N. climate conference yet. It’s up to the COP28 leadership to harness this potential and translate it into a decisive global shift to address climate change.
